要闻 来源:国泰君安期货 时间:2022-11-17 09:11:47
【资料图】
纯碱补贴水近极限,上方存在压力。当下产业链的堵点在于地产仍未好转,玻璃虽然亏损,但冷修规模并未进一步扩大。玻璃纯碱价差需要进一步收缩,才能迫使玻璃厂家减产,形成新的供需平衡点。在玻璃大面积冷修出现之前,纯碱现货大幅坍塌的可能性不大。目前12月合约基本平水,近月补贴水反弹已近极限。政策对地产虽有重要托底作用,但传导到下游玻璃需求好转,时间上或更多兑现在05合约。短期纯碱1-5反套、多纯碱空玻璃头寸或仍有空间;但01合约交割前玻璃将经历节前累库大考,中期市场或回归玻璃纯碱共振下跌的格局。
(文章来源:国泰君安期货)
标签: 国泰君安
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